|
Today´s Outlook
- Bullish %: 38.2
- Current reading is 2
Weekly Outlook
On Monday you have the daily and weekly in down trends; lower high, lower low. Friday was a doji which means to be prepared for a change in direction. On Friday the DI signaled a BUY. This makes sense as the beginning of the week in a downtrend should try for higher prices to be sold into later in the week. The weekly had a high of 1098.50; obviously you don’t want to exceed that high if the downtrend is to continue.
The limit to the weeks upside should be 1090 and 1097. Late week we will see if they sell it off again. Downside potential is 1066 and 1052. If 1052 breaks the Hindenburg is probably kicking in but with that signal so publicized I strongly doubt you’ll see that response until further upside is in.
Analysis
Ok, first things first, even though I might repeat myself.
August has seen 12 doji days and 3 normal days and 1 trend day. If you think this month has been brutal you are correct and most managers have simply taken vacation. Of those few days that saw normal or trend 50% of the range was overnight.
Second, although the market is not designed to go down it does need a BID to go up. With a current cycle bid of 2 we are in danger of losing what little support we had. In fact when the daily reached under zero yesterday, prices collapsed. No bid, no market. No bid – NO UP.
Monday spent all day in the channel reversing what was a very positive start. Sell signal for today, target 1052 and 1052 must hold! If that fails, the market could easily freefall into a wave 3 of 3 down but I’d be extremely cautious into 1052.
With the exception for any plunge below 1052, this is still a 123V reversal with a higher double bottom. After 1052 all bets are off…and we need to be prepared for it. Right now volume on the Dow was -281M for the day or 1/5th normal. It is that lack of volume that may be the only saving grace this market has.
IF the freight train heads south I don’t believe there is any stopping it. That’s fine with me, just get the engine out of the station! Price is below dotted red…it’s a sell.
Good luck with your trading! |
